Year-to-Date Auto Sales Holding Their Own

Automakers have exercised a mix of methods to keep sales and revenue steady despite the year’s economic volatility, the full-year deliveries outlook according to forecaster JD Power on track to be nearly in line with 2025 numbers.

Brands have emphasized production of more profitable segments made in the U.S. and therefore less affected by tariffs, keeping prices up and only modestly increasing incentives. So while sales have been down, transaction prices have increased, according to the report.

“The industry has exercised extreme discipline, and it is paying off,” JD Power said.

The company’s analysts put August’s annual retail sales pace at about 13.6 million units, or 30,000 units behind last year’s results.

Production of large SUVs, large light-duty pickups, midsize SUVs and midsize cars have all been up this year along with their sales, according to the report.

Through August, the average retail transaction price inclusive of incentives, has consequently grown about 2%, the data provider estimated, or an extra $172 per unit. It projects that prices will reach between $46,600 and $46,900 by the end of the year.

The emphasis on higher-margin vehicles has left in-demand segments of fuel-efficient models in short supply, JD Power said. Those include compact cars and SUVs, whose days’ supply has fallen to 36 and 44, respectively.

Smaller-vehicle production, already at thin margins for automakers, has fallen further due to the tariffs hit, said Senior Vice President of OEM Customer Success Tyson Jominy.

Hybrid inventory, meanwhile, has waned as consumers clamor for better fuel efficiency amid high gas prices, at 29 days’ supply, down 11 days from a year earlier.

The shifts this year have resulted in a much greater share of retail sales in models with fewer than 30 days’ supply, at 21% compared to 17% last year – in 2019 it was 2%.